Burton leads in recent polling

The survey was conducted by Glen Bolger of Public Opinion Strategies.
Before working with Rep. Dan Burton campaign, Bolger was most recently the pollster and strategist for Scott Brown for U.S. Senate and Bob McDonnell for VA Governor.

Download IN CD-5 Key Findings

Key Findings 

1. Congressman Dan Burton has high favorables, while his Republican primary opponents are 

largely unknown, undefined, and underfunded. 

Congressman Burton enjoys 97% name ID, with an image of 55% favorable/31% unfavorable 

among Republican primary voters.  Among base Republicans who are also very conservative – a 

core primary voter group and 33% of the primary electorate – Burton’s image is an even stronger 

60% fav/26% unfav. 

Not one of Burton’s opponents in the Republican primary has a name identification percentage 

that is as high as Burton’s favorables.  Luke Messer comes the closest with just 44% of the 

electorate having heard of him.  The other candidates’ name IDs range between 21% and 41%. 

As of the last FEC report, none of the Republican challengers had significant levels of cash-on- 

hand, suggesting that it will be difficult for them to significantly increase their name ID and 

favorables. 

2. Dan Burton has a commanding lead on the ballot test, and not one opponent has the solidified 

support to defeat Burton on Election Day. 

Congressman Burton currently leads his closest opponent by 34%, as the ballot currently stands at 

43% Burton/9% Messer/8% McVey/8% McGoff/4% Murphy/2% Lyons and 26% undecided. 

With a large number of candidates on the ballot vying for the Republican nomination, and no 

consensus building opponent, Burton is in strong shape to win the May 4 primary election.  

The Bottom Line

 

Congressman Dan Burton is in strong shape to win the Republican nomination in Indiana’s Fifth 

Congressional District.  The Congressman is the best known candidate by far and the high number of 

challengers helps to divide the anti-incumbent vote against Burton.  Dan Burton’s message that he is the 

consistent conservative fighter for the district will lead him to victory on Election Day.

 

Methodology 

Public Opinion Strategies conducted a telephone survey among likely Republican primary voters in 

Indiana’s 5th Congressional District on January 20-21, 2010.  The survey was completed among 300 

likely Republican primary voters and has a margin of error of +5.66% in 95 out of 100 cases.

Comments

[Looking forward to the Primary]

Coakly was ahead of Scott Brown by 30 points just a few weeks before the election too. I'm not so sure this race is as settled as this poll implies. It will be interesting to see if the debates and town halls taking place in the district will have any impact on the race. I wonder if the race may just be beginning.